Two new polls out this morning giving further indication that Donald Trump has essentially drawn even and possibly slightly ahead of Hillary Clinton nationally leading into the GOP National Convention next week:
- A CBS/NYTimes poll that has the race tied at 40/40; and
- A new Rasmussen survey that shows Trump leading, 44/37.
The RealClearPolitics average of recent polls, which goes all the way back to June 24, now shows Ms. Clinton with a 3.1% overall lead. If one considers only those polls taken during July, and thus more likely to give us an accurate snapshot of the race, that lead falls to 1.2%.
Further, if one factors out the wildly outlying Reuters/Ipsos survey, you end up with Trump leading by .67%. So basically, the race is a tie.
Interestingly, RCP has still not chosen to include Reuters/Ipsos's most recent update that results in Hillary holding a 13% lead in the race. So I suppose the folks at RCP may have decided that that poll is just too ludicrous even for their purposes.
Whatever, we basically now have a tied race, and it is very likely that the polls will swing in favor of Trump as he gets the traditional bounce out of his convention. After that, it is equally likely that they will swing back Ms. Clinton's way over the following two weeks as she gets the traditional bounce out of her convention.
After that, this race will ultimately boil down to whether Trump is able to convince enough voters that he is not dangerous. More on that tomorrow.
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