As The Polls Turn

Late last week I told you that the polling data would begin to turn significantly early this week in Donald Trump's favor, as the tracking polls began to interview likely voters in the days immediately following the "townhall" interviews he and Hillary Clinton did with NBC's Matt Lauer last Thursday evening.  Or was it last Wednesday?  It seems so long ago that it's hard to remember exactly.

At any rate, that's exactly what happened.  We see it in the internals of the LA Times poll, the Reuters/Ipsos tracking poll and the Rasmussen survey.

The reason why this happened is simple:  Trump went on national TV with a hostile interviewer, held his composure, displayed good knowledge of the major issues, and most importantly, looked "presidential".  On the same program, Ms. Clinton looked like the extremely transparent habitual liar that she is.  Her eyes and body language give every lie away.  Even viewers who know nothing about reading body language can instinctively see she is lying her eyes out.

As we've repeatedly pointed out, the only thing that matters from here on out is whether or not Trump can give comfort to most undecided voters that he is not a danger to the country.  The only thing that matters where that is concerned is visuals, since probably 90% of Americans at this point are almost strictly visual learners with incredibly short attention spans (thanks, horrible education system and social media).

Trump's visuals last week with Lauer were great.  Probably the best he's had during the entire campaign season.  Hillary's visuals on the same program were god-awful, even moreso than they normally are.

Thus, the polling move towards Trump over the weekend was entirely predictable to anyone who does not get their news from ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN, MSNBC, the Washington Post or the New York Times.

What I didn't know when I wrote that piece late last week was that Hillary would exacerbate her own terrible week with her "basket of deplorables" remarks the next evening, and that her situation vis a vis visuals would shortly become infinitely worse, as it did when she physically collapsed at the 9/11 memorial on Sunday.  Unlike the bad visuals with Lauer, which her agents in the fake media moved away from as quickly as possible, that video - naturally not captured by any of the fake reporters who follow her campaign, but by a bystander with an I-Phone - has been played millions of times to date, and will be played millions more times prior to November 8.

The result of piling those events atop her terrible, horrible, awful, no-good evening with Matt Lauer has been to turn what would have been a significant polling move towards Trump into a polling tidal wave.  Barring another Clinton collapse, that wave will likely play itself out by the end of this weekend, but the damage is now done.  Trump leads now in every reputable tracking poll - and even in the disreputable Reuters/Ipsos sham poll - and not even the NY Times was able to dummy up a poll showing Mrs. Clinton with a significant lead.

There was another very significant and telling event that took place this week in Flint, Michigan.  As Trump was speaking to an African American church audience, he was heckled and then rudely interrupted by the church's female preacher when he began to make remarks about Mrs. Clinton.  This was an obvious pre-planned effort to provoke him into a stupid back-and-forth with the preacher, as he did with he Kahn family following the Democrat National Convention.

But this time, Trump didn't react to the shiny object like a cat chasing a laser pointer.  This time, he reacted calmly and gracefully ceded control of the podium to the hostile preacher. 

Smart.

We are now in our fifth week of Trump not chasing any shiny objects or doing anything stupid.  This is the key to the entire campaign.  If he can keep that up for eight more weeks, this election will not be close.

Remember:  despite all efforts by the Clinton campaign and her supporters in the fake news media to convince you otherwise, this campaign is about one thing and one thing only. And at this point, Trump is on the way to winning big.

For Hillary, Nothing Is Ever "That Big A Deal"

Hillary Clinton appeared via telephone - presumably from her pneumonia-ridden sick bed - on Anderson Cooper 360 last night, and told a bunch more lies about her health issues, among other things she lied about.  (To be clear, I did not see the entire interview, but I know she was lying the entire time, simply because her lips were moving.)

When asked by Cooper why, if she had been diagnosed with pneumonia on Friday, she didn't just come clean with the American people and let them know about it then?

Her answer:  "Well, I just didn't think it was that big a deal."

This is the lie Hillary invariably trots out when the initial effort to cover things up has failed.  And make no mistake, there is always, 100% of the time, an initial effort to cover things up whenever she has done something unethical, controversial or illegal.

Why didn't you tell the truth about a U.S. Ambassador and three other dead Americans in Benghazi?  "Well, I just didn't think it was that big a deal (at this point, what difference does it make?)."

Why did you tell your staff to erase 33,000 emails and "clean" your private server with acid?  "Well, I just didn't think it was that big a deal."

Why did you choose to use that illegal server while serving as Secretary of State to begin with?  "Well, I just didn't think it was that big a deal."

Why did you try to cover up all the special access you were granting to Clinton Foundation donors while serving as Secretary of State?  "Well, I just didn't think it was that big a deal."

Why did you accept millions of dollars in speaking fees from the same big Wall Street firms you demonize on the campaign trail?  "Well, I just didn't think it was that big a deal."

Why did you try to cover up your and your husband's illegal use of confidential FBI files of your political enemies while serving as First Lady?  "Well, I just didn't think it was that big a deal."

Why did you lie about bilking Whitewater investors out of hundreds of thousands of dollars during the 1980s?  "Well, I just didn't think it was that big a deal."


To Hillary Clinton, nothing is ever "that big a deal", especially if the public knowing about it might stand in the way of her collecting bags of money or grabbing political power.

This is why she must not be elected president in November.  Because to her, nothing - literally nothing, not even the death of American citizens - is ever "that big a deal".

Trump Wins The Persuasion Battle

To listen to and read all the fake media reports today, last night's forum was basically a wash for Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump.  Because the fake media continues to report on this race as if it were a conventional race, they would have you believe there was no winner.  Trump's optics were a little better, while Hillary predictably displayed a superior grasp of details, they would all have you believe.  A tie.

I believe this is, like 1980 was, a completely non-conventional race.  The details on foreign policy issues don't matter.  Hell, the issues themselves don't matter.

The only thing that matters in this race at this point is whether or not Donald Trump can convince enough undecided, independent voters that he is not a danger to the survival of the American Republic and everyone in it.  It's the exact same challenge Ronald Reagan faced against incumbent Jimmy Carter 36 years ago.

Hillary spent her entire time with Clinton Foundation Fellow Matt Lauer trying hard to convince you that Trump is indeed such a clear and present danger to your very survival.  Given that she decided about six weeks ago to make this the entire basis for her candidacy, that is not surprising.

Trump, on the other hand, spent his time with Mr. Lauer looking and sounding nothing like a danger to the survival of the country and its inhabitants.  He actually was pretty well versed on the issues as well - indicating he has finally decided to do the homework he should have done a year ago - and that's great.

But again, the issues don't matter, because everyone who gives a damn about the issues has already unalterably made up their minds about who to vote for. 

What mattered was how Trump looked and sounded to those who haven't made up their minds.  Again, he looked and sounded presidential, and really pretty safe compared to his unrepentant felon of an opponent.

Make no mistake about it, last night was a clear, big win for Trump from the only standpoints that matter.  That clear, big win will begin showing up in the polling data early next week, when you will see Trump's lead in the non-TV network affiliated polls expand.

Once you start viewing this race from a persuasion standpoint, none of what happens from here on out will surprise you.  If you, like the fake news media, keep looking at it as a conventional presidential race, you'll be surprised pretty much every week.

Your choice.

The Problem With Libertarians

So, lots of talk these days among voters who are disgusted with both major party candidates of voting for the Libertarian nominee, former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson, instead.  Lots of chatter in the chattering classes that this year Mr. Johnson will receive a record number of votes for a nominee of that Party.

That may happen, but I doubt it.

Look, we see this every four years to one extent or another.  A certain number of voters are always dissatisfied with both major parties, and a significant number of them always threaten to take their vote and basically waste it on a Libertarian nominee who cannot win.

As Election Day approaches, polls will show the Libertarian moving to 5% or even higher (Johnson currently polls around 6-8%), and folks start getting excited that this year could be a game changer for a party that has never been remotely competitive in presidential politics.  But then, Election Day comes and the Libertarian nominee invariably ends up with 1 or 2 percent of the overall vote.

Why? Because at the end of the day, most voters don't really want to waste their votes.  Most people want to vote for a candidate who actually has a chance to win, and here is the thing about the Libertarian candidate for president in any election cycle:

He or she CANNOT WIN.  Period.

No matter how much time passes, and no matter which former RINO or Country Club Republican the Libertarians roll out there in any given election year, the Libertarian Party will NEVER elect a president of the United States. 

This is simply an immutable reality of American politics, and there is one simple reason why it exists:  the vast majority of American voters have been conditioned by the education system, our fake news media, and the two major parties to go out and vote based on which candidate is going to get into office and have the government do things for them as individuals, rather than what is best for the country.

That's great for Democrats in particular, but also for big government, establishment Republicans, who are always trying to use the government to do things it should not be doing in a free society.

But it's terrible for Libertarian nominee, because the entire Libertarian philosophy and message is about telling voters that the government won't and indeed can't do things for them.  In an age during which individual selfishness has reached the point of mass narcissism when it comes to voting, that message is simply death to any Libertarian nominee.

So if you're excited today about polls showing Mr. Johnson and his fellow country club Republican VP nominee, Bill Weld, getting 6 to 8 percent of the vote, God bless you.  Just know that, when Election Day rolls around, those numbers are not going to materialize.  If they get 3%, consider it a moral victory.

Disclaimer:  My own personal politics would be described by most people to be Libertarian in nature.  I do believe in that philosophy of government.  I just don't want to waste my time casting a vote for a Libertarian nominee who is not actually a Libertarian at all, and who cannot win in any case.

Trump Takes The Lead

While Hillary Clinton coughed her way through a speech in Cleveland yesterday, Donald Trump was taking the lead in the new poll from - get ready for it - CNN.

Yes, friends, the Clinton News Network, which has blatantly made itself nothing more than the propaganda arm for the Clinton campaign for the last year and a half, is no longer able to dummy  up a poll that could credibly give their gal the lead and has finally given up that ghost.  Heads must literally be spinning right now in their morning meeting to review the talking points the Clinton campaign has fed them overnight, as they desperately attempt to find some way to report this latest CNN/ORC poll as positive news for Hillary.

But wait, it gets better.  Trump also took the lead over the weekend in - are you sitting down? - the REUTERS/IPSOS tracking poll.

That is not a typo.

Yes, the Reuters/Ipsos poll, about which I wrote extensively in July, as its authors scrambled to revise their already heavily biased sampling method to make it even more friendly to The Most Corrupt Woman in America, now has Trump holding a 1 point lead.  I suppose we should expect an announcement from Reuters soon that it will, from this point forward, only poll Democrats in order to ensure Hillary keeps her "lead" over her execrable opponent.

Speaking of Trump, let's all remember that it was barely a month ago that everyone in the DC/NYC Establishment Axis of Propaganda was declaring the New York businessman to be officially dead in this race.  It was too late, they said, and Hillary's lead at that point was just too overwhelming for him to be able to make a comeback.

A few weeks later, here we are.  Trump leads not only in the CNN/ORC and Reuters/Ipsos polls, he also leads in the LA Times poll and the Rasmussen survey.

Of course, the Establishment people have made this same mistake of declaring Trump officially "dead" at dozens of points over the last 14 months.  One can only wonder how many more times they will make this same clownish mistake before finally learning what is really going on in the electorate this cycle.

Ok, the truth is that these people are so out of touch with real America, so solidly captive in their little insular bubble of stupidity and ignorance that they are utterly incapable of comprehending how ordinary Americans actually think.

The only good news for them here is that it is they, and not Trump, who are running out of time in this campaign.  So they can only be utterly, completely, laughably wrong a few more times before it's all over.

It's Trump's Election to Lose

Sorry the postings have been so sparse lately, but we've been involved in job changes and a move to a new city, and it's been hard to keep up.

But after yesterday's events, I had to find the time.

Put simply, Donald Trump's trip to Mexico is the turning point in the campaign, all other things being equal.  Regardless of how often the fake news media repeat the Clinton campaign talking points and ridiculing the trip, it was YUGE for Trump.

First, he made the trip to Mexico City at the invitation of President Pena Nieto.  The first thing that tell us is that, despite all the rhetoric from the media and the NeverTrump pinheads, the President of Mexico thinks it is entirely likely that Donald Trump is going to be the next President.

Smart man.

The next thing it tells us is that Mr. Nieto is anxious to establish a working relationship with Trump, in the hopes of mitigating his intentions to actually enforce U.S. immigration laws.  Again, smart man.

Even though he had barely 24 hours notice, Trump smartly jumped at the chance to fly to Mexico City.  The opportunity to hold a joint presser with the President of another country is a rare chance for any presidential candidate, and it was doubly important for Trump.

At that event, Trump was firmly in command of the agenda and the message, so much so that even the tireless Trump-bashing Charles Krauthammer had to admit he had done well.

Trump's speech in Phoenix later in the evening was even better, focusing as it did - and should have - on simply enforcing the U.S. immigration laws that have been on the books for many years.  The truth is, nothing more need be done to solve every problem related to our southern border.  Every one of them have been created and exacerbated by 16 years of presidents who had no intent or interest in enforcing those laws.

It was an incredibly smart speech, a brilliantly choreographed day overall, and without any doubt a turning point in this campaign.  And there was literally nothing Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama could do about it.

As I've said since last October, this is and remains Trump's election to win or lose.  His one and only task in this campaign is to convince the public at large that he can be a credible president who is not a danger to the Republic.  Wednesday went a long way towards accomplishing that goal and will have him ahead in several of the myriad polls by mid-week next week.

He has now avoided doing anything real stupid for three weeks.  If he can continue that for two more months, he will be elected president and it won't be real close.  The vast majority of Americans don't want to vote for Hillary, but they need to be made comfortable in voting for Trump.

It's all in Trump's hands now and there really isn't anything Hillary can do about it.

"Third-World Style Corruption"

Last night, Donald Trump, citing a new report by AP on Hillary Clinton's utter corruption of the State Department, criticized his opponent for engaging in "third world style corruption".

That's a great line, because that's exactly what it is.

For those who actually depend on the fake "news media" for their "news", and thus have not heard anything about this latest Clinton scandal, the AP took a look at Hillary's meeting logs while serving as SecState and determined that fully 55% of the non-government employee meetings she took while in that office were conducted with people who had either already given gobs of bucks to the Clinton Slush Fund, er, "Foundation", or who gave gobs of bucks following the meeting.  The AP then went on to document examples of favors the GodMother did for these folks after the money flowed into her crime family slush fund.

That's exactly how business is conducted in banana republics, i.e., third world countries.  It's a disgrace to the office, an utter and complete betrayal of the public trust, an abuse of power so disgusting than in any other presidential administration in American history it would have landed the perpetrator - that being the GodMother - in prison.

But this is the administration of Barack Obama, a man who views banana republic dictators as role models.  So not only did Ms. Clinton skate while abusing her office, she ultimately became free to rig the nominating process of her party and land the role as its presidential nominee.

Someday, some enterprising investigative reporter will rummage through Mr. Obama's financial transactions, looking for funds that might have been laundered through the Clinton crime family slush fund.  After all, this is a man who has never held a decent paying job in his entire life, and yet is somehow planning to retire to a DC-adjacent neighborhood filled with $10 million homes.  Where did all that money come from? 

An actually functional news media would be clamoring to find out the answer to that question.  Just as a functional Justice Department would have already put Hillary Clinton behind bars.

Instead, we face the prospect of this Most Corrupt Woman in America, who turned herself into a $300 millionaire by turning the State Department into a bribery factory now planning to turn herself into a billionaire by doing the same thing at the White House.

Third world style corruption, indeed.